First congratulations by this work. It is very interesting.
I understand not one detail. Transdnistria. Why you think this territory has less chance than other territories like Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh? I see not high difference between them. There also was a war and a Russian military occupation.
Sorry for the late reply, you can contact me by e-mail for any related question.
I think Transnistria has still more chance to be integrated back into Moldova.
Moldavians , even the ones who uses Romanian, can speak Russian fluently, there is a less cultural separation between Moldova and Transnistria.
Than, no country in the world recognizes Transnistria.
Now Smirnov has lost the presidency, I think there is a chance in the future for this territory to be reintegrated into Moldova. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are far more complicated cases: they are recognized by few countries including Russia, most of its citizens don't speak georgian and they have Russian passports.
I see increasing unlikely the chance they will be back under Georgian control
Nagorno karabakh independence might be a solution for the conflict, which otherwise seems not to have solution. Azerbaijan will never accept it to be a part of Armenia and Armenia will not give it up back to Azerbaijan. Maybe one day one compromise with an independent Nagorno Karabakh with both azeris and armenians could be reached. Transnistria still seems the most likely to be reintegrated. Just my though.